Announcing the 2025 Canada Food Price Report
Today marks the release of the 15th annual Canada Food Price Report. The report is a result of collaborations between agri-food researchers across the country that summarize the last year of food price movements and predict how food prices will move in the year to come. Given turbulent geopolitical and climate events in the last few years, previous reports have suggested marked price increases across food categories. Although this year is no different, with food in general expected to increase between 3% and 5% in 2025, this year’s Food Price Report suggests that consumption behaviour will continue to shape the evolution of Canada’s food supply chain, as observed in 2024.
Predicted food price increases have returned to what was predicted in 2021. Inflation and a host of other factors over the past two years have pushed food price increases upward. Food price increases have been predicted as follows:
- 2024 – 3-5%
- 2023 – 5-7%
- 2022 – 5-7%
- 2021 – 3-5%
While it is a small comfort, consumers should observe lower price increases than in the previous two years.
The Continued Rise
As the cost of living continues to increase so, too, will the price of food. One of the factors highlighted by the Canada Food Price Report is the declining power of the Canadian dollar. As our exchange rate declines, our ability to buy or afford is diminished, especially as Canada is a price-taking country. Our reliance on foreign markets and import capacity lengthens our agri-food supply chains and inadvertently allows for multiple opportunities for disruption, which partially contribute to the predicted $801.60 increase on food spending for a family of four in 2025. This will raise annual household expenditures on food to $17,400.96.
Climate change continues to globally batter farmers who are unable adapt fast enough to uncertain weather. In 2024, droughts were of particular concern, reducing crop yields and, in the case of beef ranching, subsequently forcing farmers out of the industry as feed costs rose. As a result of rising production and recovery costs, Canadian consumers consequentially experienced high coffee, cocoa, and beef prices. The market recovery of any of these products will be something to watch in the coming year.
Canada’s growing labour issues are expected to continue into 2025, especially as they have continued the last few weeks. Strikes in Vancouver and Montreal ports revealed how vulnerable our current supply chains are to disruption. However, labour security across the agri-food industry has been declining, with individuals pursuing less labour-intensive sectors and the sector preferring the low cost of immigrant workers. News about the quality of Canada’s temporary foreign worker program followed by the immigration cap highlight government’s confusion over Canadian opportunity, and rotating strikes in essential services further emphasized the importance and stress of supply chain players. Given that concrete solutions have neither been established for immigration policy nor the discontentment of essential workers, we are likely to see the full effects of labour concerns reflected in upcoming food prices.
Consumption is Power
A common theme throughout the Canada Food Price Report 2025 is the role of the consumer. With financial strain and rising inflation, Canadians used their food dollars to voice their discontent, with prices and with the lack of retail competition. Not only were food banks a vital resource for Canadians, especially as the food-insecure population grows, but food familiarity also influences diet choices. Although nutrition (and, by extension, Health Canada) shapes our societal views of food, affordability is still front of mind and changing the avenues in which Canadians budget for and pursue food spending. There is no shortage of novelty and, with the increased importance of social media is improving consumers’ awareness of food opportunities, 2025 will be an exciting year to see if food trends can flourish in an increasingly budget-conscious Canada.
Canadian food price change for 2024, Food Price Report (2023) prediction vs. actual change
Food Categories | 2024 Canada's Food Price Report Forecast | 2024 Actual Change (CPI, Sept. '23 to Sept. '24) |
|---|---|---|
Bakery | 5% to 7% | -0.1% |
Dairy | 1% to 3% | 2.7% |
Fruits | 1% to 3% | 1.6% |
Meats | 5% to 7% | 3.1% |
Other | 2% to 4% | 3.1% |
Restaurants | 3% to 5% | 3.5% |
Seafood | 3% to 5% | -1.6% |
Vegetables | 5% to 7% | 4.4% |
Total Food Prices | 2.5% to 4.5% | 2.8% |
2024 exemplified how much of food pricing is outside the control of the consumer. Although price trends were within last year’s predicted range, the certainty of those movements were turbulent. Think back to how prevalent food safety and price stories were across media outlets, and how little corresponding certainty there was in how the agri-food market would respond to, in some cases, preventable issues. With heightened cost of living challenges, families are searching for new ways to alleviate financial stresses both in where they source dinner, what is in the bowl, and how savings are recovered. As we move forward, responding to geopolitical challenges, climate-caused shortages, and the changing grocery (quality, preference) landscape, Canadians are becoming more involved in their food purchasing decisions. Although it is unlikely that any of these factors will disappear completely from food choices, this year’s Canada Food Price Report suggests that Canada is starting to acknowledge agri-food opportunities, and we are slowly rebuilding food price stability.
