“I Couldn’t Imagine a Better Life for Her”

It starts with a dream

I was around ten years old when my dad handed me a pamphlet he was about to throw away. The pamphlet showed a picture of a young girl looking towards a hay field with the words: I couldn’t imagine a better life for her. Today, as my friends and I strategize how we will farm someday, we come to the cold realization that starting up a farm in Canada seems almost impossible for our generation. Since 2001, Canada has lost 23% of farms, averaging three farms per day (Dyck, 2024). Forty percent of Canadian farmers are predicted to retire by 2030, but only 8.6% are under 35. Machinery capital for an average farm is just under a million dollars, and Canadian farmland and building values increased by 22.7% in the last five years (Dyck, 2024). Canada’s agriculture sector is selling dreams at a high price for young start-up farmers, and to ensure the success of family farm operations in the future, young farmers need support from the Canadian Federal and Provincial governments. Policy changes could include capital gain incentives, lower interest rates, and grant funding.

Dreams cost money

Having big dreams tend to have crippling realities. Young and new farms may be reaching for opportunities to farm that are simply out of reach. One significant challenge may involve the inflation of operating costs such as the cost of inputs, equipment, and the price of farmland. Farm Credit Canada’s historical farmland value reports show that in 2023 Canada’s annual change in farmland values was 11.5%, and an increase to that scale was last reported in 2014. The province of Saskatchewan valued their land on average at $342 an acre in 1996, and in 2023 has soared to $2933 an acre (Farm Credit Canada, 2023). Farm machinery investments in Saskatchewan can range between $417-$532 per acre, and crop input and variable costs can range from $200-$400 an acre (Ministry of Saskatchewan, 2025).

A new policy that is capable of significant implications for farm operations is the new capital gains budget in 2024; capital gain taxes will increase from 50% to two-thirds, 66%, for gains over $250,000 (Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, 2024). This could disincentivize retiring farmers to sell their land in large parcels due to higher taxes. This policy could give young farmers fewer opportunities to purchase land in the future.

Furthermore, a recent publication from Canadian Food Studies pinpoints key entry barriers for young farmers, such as low net income, weak market power, unaffordable farmland prices, and regulatory regimes. In regards to net income, Canadian farmers currently produce $60 billion a year in farm products, but $57 billion of this revenue is expensed for seed, fertilizer, chemicals, and equipment. This leaves Canadian farmers with a net income of three billion dollars, 0.95% of gross revenue. Trending low commodity prices and high input costs are evidence of a market power disadvantage between farmers and corporations. Furthermore, increased globalization of agricultural markets also has a significant correlation with farmers’ changes in income and overall market power. The encouragement for farmers to engage in maximum production for trade purposes has a financial effect; the cost of maximizing input use is that prices rise at a faster and higher rate than farm products. Absolute advantage of producing farm products in a globally competitive market will also drop prices down. In fact, grain companies and commodity traders can take advantage of globalized trade markets, and will “discipline” certain regions if their product rises in price (Qualman, et al., 2018).

Making dreams possible

Thinking back to that little girl with the pamphlet, my question becomes, how can we increase the odds for that young girl to farm one day? There are opportunities within public policy that could increase opportunities for new farmers. One policy provinces are calling on the federal government to revise is the capital gain tax changes for 2024. Lowering capital gain taxes restricts the taxable punishment for farmers to sell large parcels of land at a time, which is needed when land supply is tight, and opportunities are already slim. Another policy opportunity would be to increase access to grant funding for start-up farm operations to offset the unaffordability of farmland and inputs, both on a federal and provincial level. Having access to start-up capital is financially stressful for future farmers, and having more grant funding gives farmers a better chance for real property loans and lines of credit to be approved for land purchases as well as input costs. Grant funding could be allocated from federal and provincial budgets for agricultural programs. These funds can be accessed through provincial programs run by provinces such as the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture.

Challenges to overcome

Although there are policy opportunities to help young farmers, the atmosphere of the agriculture industry is changing. Currently, the perception by many in government and academia is that due to innovation in technology and production, we do not need as many farm operators as we did years ago (Qualman et al., 2018). Additionally, 51.4% of farm revenue came from 4.1% of farms in 2020 (Dyck, 2024). This research alludes to the growth of farm operations, including farm family operations. For these families, skyrocketing prices are a double-edged sword. Although land prices may be unaffordable for young or new farmers to get into business, the high prices also reflect financial and business success for established family farm operations. A realistic perspective for young or new farms would be to start their operations by renting. Furthermore, economies like the province of Saskatchewan have benefited from high land prices, which have been historically undervalued. Family farms and the province of Saskatchewan have prospered with operational and technological success but comes at a cost for future farm operations.

Do dreams have a future?

As a little girl, it never occurred to me that it would be almost impossible to start farming when my family already had a farm. Now, I ask myself every day if I can somehow make it possible. Canadian agriculture may be a booming industry, but its success comes at a high cost to the next generation. If the costs of farming continue to increase, thousands of ambitious young men and women like me are not going to feed the world. If the Canadian federal and provincial governments want agriculture to step up, I call upon them to give us a leg up.