Canada's Food Price Report, 16th edition
Canada has faced trade and tariff threats from both the south and west this year. The USA, China and India have all illegally applied tariffs on Canadian exports, disrupting trade and in many instances, making products more expensive for consumers. As a result of this turmoil, it won’t come as a surprise to many Canadians that food prices are predicted to rise for the coming year. Fortunately, the increase is considerably less than what many may have expected, with prices expected to rise between 4% and 6%.
The fact that fruit and vegetable prices are expected to rise less than the overall increase is testament to Canada’s fruit and vegetable farmers and their ability to have done their best to combat the drought that many of these farmers faced in 2025. Canada imports nearly 80% of its fruit and vegetables, which are all prices in US dollars, regardless of the country of origin, so a strong Canadian dollar will contribute to keep increases as low as is possible.
Meat price increases stand out as being the category with the most significant increase. This is due to basic economics, as the supply of beef is at its lowest point in the past 40 years. Due to persistent drought across much of the Prairies peak beef producing region, there are fewer cattle in this region than at any time since the mid to late 1980s. Even if abundant rains were to occur next summer, it will take 2-3 years for herd sizes to rebound and for beef supply to increase.
Poultry production was negatively impacted by the lengthy and mild fall that many regions enjoyed. Due to the mild weather, wild ducks and geese stayed longer in Canada, raising the rates of Avian Flu affecting poultry producers. Consumers should expect to see poultry prices higher over the next few months.
In 2026, a household of 4 is expected to pay $17, 571.79 for food, an increase of nearly $1,000 over 2025. This results in a weekly increase of just under $20. This will further stress the budgets of low income and low middle income households.
With the prime interest rate at 2.25%, there is the potential for a further cut in the first quarter of 2026, which would provide some financial relief for households. Canada continues to face weak economic growth with GDP falling 0.5% in the second quarter, but rising 0.6% in the third quarter. GDP growth of 0.1% for half of 2025, will put pressure on the Bank of Canada to continue to ease interest rates. Households in the position of renegotiating mortgages may be able to save some money that could ease higher grocery bills.
In March, Food Bank use reached an all-time high in Canada, with 2.2 million visits. This indicates that many Canadian households have valiantly battle consistently increasing food prices over the past 5 years with multiple strategies, but are now falling behind. A hidden concern in the increased reliance on Food Banks is the potential of households reducing the nutritional quality of meals, especially for those households with children.
The expected price increases will increase the pressure on provincial governments to reduce inter-provincial trade barriers. Barriers to trade between provinces contribute to higher product prices. There have been some initial discussions between groups of provinces, but little action. The federal government removed a large number of domestic trade barriers this past summer, which may provide some easing of price increases. The potential for easing price increases could be further complimented by similar provincial government actions.
The newest edition of Canada’s Food Price Report is available at:
Canada’s Food Price Report 2026
